Saturday 19 April 2008

The main event: Original diva battles new diva for No. 1

Forget that sleepy winter we just endured. We've got a horse race. The top slot on Billboard's Hot 100 has turned into a revolving door, as Mariah Carey succumbs to the gal she replaced just two weeks ago. Boosted by the U.S. release of her debut album, Leona Lewis rides her biggest week of digital sales yet (223,000 downloads) to recapture the top slot on the chart with "Bleeding Love". Back in March, when the song first rose to No. 1, we snarked about the power of Oprah to make this British reality-show ingénue an American pop star. But at this point, it's only fair to say that Lewis' song is pretty much doing the heavy lifting on its own.

Lewis shouldn't get too comfortable, however: Almost every other song in the Top Five could plausibly replace her next week, including "Touch My Body", the Carey song she replaced. That song makes an unusually large fall from the top slot, all the way down to No. 5 - which says less about the weakness of Carey's hit than it does about the strength of the four songs above her. True, sales of "Touch" were down a wincing 28% last week (117,000 downloads), but her airplay continues to grow (up a little over 4%), which is remarkable since "Touch" is already the second-most-played song in the country. In a sleepier week, Mariah's middling performance would probably have kept her in the Top Three.

But she's fighting off not just Lewis, but two rising smashes and one former No. 1 that's still remarkably healthy. The rising hits are both duets, of a sort, and both are becoming ubiquitous on the radio: Lil Wayne's "Lollipop" featuring Static Major at No. 2, and Jordin Sparks' "No Air" featuring Chris Brown at No. 3.

Each of those songs has an explosive week of airplay growth. Sparks' ballad increases its radio audience by nearly 20% and is now the fourth-most-played hit. As for Weezy, airplay for "Lollipop" is smaller (seventh overall), but its more than 40% growth is eye-popping. Each tune is also helped by strong digital sales. "Lollipop" was already strong and ekes out a 4% rise to 178,000 downloads. "No Air" is boosted by Sparks and Brown appearing on last week's American Idol results show, propelling it by 34% to 154,000.

Usher's "Love in This Club" with Young Jeezy, the aforementioned former No. 1, is now at No. 4. Still radio's most-played song and still a relatively healthy seller, with 121,000 downloads, "Club" stands little chance of returning to No. 1. But the fact that Usher out-charts Mariah this week is fairly remarkable.

So what happens now? Who's No. 1 next week? Lewis' digital sales will inevitably cool, along with her album in week two. So will Sparks' song, now that her triumphant return to Idol with a hit record (like a high-school reunion, innit?) is past. But each ingénue's airplay has lots of room to grow.

Speaking of Idol, the show dedicated a full week of shows to Mariah as part of Island Def Jam's you'd-have-to-live-under-a-rock-to-miss-this launch of E=MC2. It's expected to hit the album chart next week with the biggest debut sales of any 2008 album - around half a mil - and that's going to boost her iTunes sales all around. So: comeback for "Touch My Body", right? She does to Lewis what Lewis just did to her?

Not so fast: in her Idol performance, Carey showcased the album's next single, "Bye Bye" (which is probably another No. 1 hit; damn thing's catchy like a fungus). As of today, it's already selling nearly as many copies on iTunes as "Body". So basically, even while Carey moves truckloads of albums, she's splitting the vote, as it were, by promoting her old and new singles at the same time.

As tempting as it is to view next week's contest as a catfight (even Madonna is still a factor), all this up-and-down activity probably most benefits the one guy in the race: Lil Wayne. "Lollipop" has got the clearest momentum of any song on the chart right now, with sales solid as a rock and airplay on a tear - boosted by Top 40 as well as R&B/hip-hop radio, a combination only Carey has going for her.

In this year of smooth-talking guys outpolling hard-working women, don't be surprised if Weezy emerges with his first No. 1 hit sometime soon.

(Idolator)



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