Album of the year: Who will win?

Album of the year

Music's most coveted prize, an anointing of artistic merit that can also reignite sales, brings five diverse candidates into a tight race decided by a notoriously illogical voting body.

The results will be revealed during the Grammy Awards, airing Feb. 8 at 8 p.m. ET/PT on CBS. The five albums in play are U2's How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb, Kanye West's Late Registration, Mariah Carey's The Emancipation of Mimi, Paul McCartney's Chaos and Creation in the Backyard and Gwen Stefani's Love Angel Music Baby.

They're listed in the order that Paul Grein, music writer and veteran Grammy prognosticator, believes the voters will rank them. The criteria? Popularity, artistry, sales, lovability, history and mysterious ephemera.

"I think U2 will win," says Grein, countering a consensus leaning West. "Three albums have a shot. Kanye is second, Mariah is third. I've got to believe U2 will take it. They're so respected, and they stand for the traditional pop-rock craft that has always done well in the Grammys going back 35 years."

Those in West's corner argue that Registration's unprecedented praise, non-gangsta stance and big sales make it a shoo-in, and that its chances are further enhanced because the rapper's College Dropout was cheated out of a best-album win last year. "It's hard to see Kanye winning when just a year ago he couldn't beat Maroon 5 for best new artist," Grein says. "There's still resistance to rap."

Though a win for West would be a milestone, it's not a Grammy first. Hip-hop duo Outkast won best album two years ago. "Rap got over that hurdle and set a precedent," Grein says. "But Outkast faced very weak competition. If Kanye does win, it would be a much more convincing statement about rap's appeal. He would be beating a Beatle, the most respected band since The Beatles and the year's biggest-selling album."

(USA Today)